States Fragmentation as a Current Trend of the World's Evolution
(An exercise in black humor)

There were times when states growth and empires creation was a dominant trend in the World. Since then the trend reversed itself. First, empires started crumbling. And now the turn of states disintegration and fragmentation has come.

The latter has many causes:

  1. Growth of elite in country regions. In the past elite was thin and mostly concentrated in the centers of power. Nowadays elite is numerous and spread across a country fairly evenly. Elite outside of the centers of power is prone to harboring the wish of independence.
  2. Increasingly porous borders (of all countries around the globe). In the past they were relatively sealed not because they were better guarded but because not many people would gain anything from crossing them. For example, what would Mexicans gain by crossing into US in XIX century ? Nothing. Now the gains skyrocketed. Even in the worst case scenario of ending up working for pennies, Mexicans are still able to transfer these pennies to their families in Mexico, where they turn out to be big money. Such transfers were not possible just a few decades ago. The means of communication did not allow them. There was no way of transferring small amounts of money to any remote village abroad cheaply. Communication technology did not grow to that extend yet. That is why poor Mexican peasants stayed in Mexico and did not come to US to work for pennies.
  3. Advances in communication technology. Not only they created an initiative for cross-border migration (as was explained above), but they also gave means of organizing to people that wants to resist the grip of the central power. Advent of cell phones, internet, etc. significantly diminished the edge of the government over its opponets in the ability to be more organized.
  4. Advent of the personal weapons of almost mass destruction. The power of weapons that can be carried and operated by an individual increased dramatically. This also contributes to the weakening of State.
  5. Etc.

Although all these factors have not reached the level of being able to cause state to disintegrate on its own, the threshold is fast approaching. However, they are already strong enough to prevent state from recovery should it be shattered by other forces. For example, invasion of Iraq shattered the then existing state and now we see how the above factors preclude the re-imposing of the state order in Iraq. The power of the army that tries to re-impose the order is matched by the mobility, communication ability, and deadly power of small devices of the opponents of the government. The same may happen to any state, should it get broken down one day.

Does it mean that invasion of Iraq was a mistake ? Not at all, if one looks at the history through the eyes of TRIZ and ... Hegel philosophy. The latter was probably the first to put forward the concept of "the cunning of reason" that guides statesmen and facilitates through them the necessary trends of world development [1]. For example, according to Hegel, spreading of Hellinism was a necessary and inevitable step of the ancient world's evolution and this trend found its facilitator in the shape of Alexander the Great. He might have embarked on the conquest of Asia out of his own reasons, such as craving for fame. But in fact his conquests served a higher purpose of spreading Hellinism. Alexander was just a means of facilitating this trend.

This is the same concept which TRIZ adheres to. Individual inventions manifest trends of technological evolution regardless of the real motives that drove their inventors. Thus, according to TRIZ (and Hegel), war in Iraq facilitates some trend. Which one ? - has only left to ask. Democratization ? Definitely not, despite some politicians tout namely it. More likely it facilitates the afore mentioned trend of states fragmentation, which has ripened and became inevitable due to advances in technology.

This trend gives clear answers to the raging debates over whether or not to withdraw from Iraq and whether or not to attack Iran. Paradoxically as it may appear, both of them should be answered in affirmative. Staying in Iraq for the sake of building a new democratic state is against the current trend of states fragmentation. It is just a waste of time, lives and resources. Attacking Iran in order to shatter it to pieces from which it will never resurrect again is, on the contrary, in accordance with the trend.

Thus, TRIZ method of patterns and trends of evolution points to the ingenious ways out of the complicated political situations. It is only pity that politicians do not know TRIZ. As a result, they always facilitate the ripened trends in not a streamlined fashion, wasting too much resources and lives and converting History into "the slaughter bench at which the happiness of peoples, the wisdom of States, and the virtue of individuals is being victimized" [1].

R E F E R E N C E S:

[1] G. W. F. Hegel, "The Philosophy of History", 1837.