Once again on trends and anti-trends

Y. B. Karasik,
Thoughts Guiding Systems Corp.,
Ottawa, Canada.
e-mail:karasik@sympatico.ca

Before this journal provided the first counter examples to TRIZ trends of progression of technology, it was assumed that technology progresses in only one direction (of each path):

The authors of this journal have shown that anti-trends exist:

It might appear that the theory could be saved by slight modifications:

  1. the trends are statistical;
  2. the direct trends are dominant and anti-trends are recessive and weak;
Unfortunately, there is a further complication. Along with trends and anti-trends there is progression in other directions. For example, for mono-bi-poly trend besides anti-trend (poly-bi-mono) there are also the following additional trends: For all of them there are examples.

Trends are not one dimensional lines with two possible directions of progression. They are rather multi-dimensional surfaces with multiple directions of progressions possible at any point in time. That is why the correct way to model trends is to present them in the form of "the trees of evolution".