Trends Reversal Indicators Needed

Y. B. Karasik,
Thoughts Guiding Systems Corp.,
Ottawa, Canada.

Altshuller in pursuit of the Science of Innovation boldly called some regularities in systems' evolution that he noticed "laws" of technical systems evolution. This created a problem with preaching of TRIZ in America. People were sceptical about these "laws". And the preachers found a more palatable term - "trends". So, "laws" became "trends" (one of the buzz words) and preaching of TRIZ went more smoothly.

But tacitly they continued to treat "trends" as "laws", as something that always holds and flows in one and the same direction. Only after publication of counter-examples to "trends" in Anti TRIZ-journal, it became apparent that the trends are subject to reversal. This immediately devaluated most of TRIZ because without knowledge of which trend to apply - direct or reverse - it is impossible to solve a problem.

To tackle the issue, the trends reversal detecting techniques are needed. Such techniques/indicators are well developed for other trends, such as trends in financial markets, etc. But for trends in technical systems evolution there are none.

This partially explains why TRIZ so far failed to bring about any significant technological brake through. It is because TRIZniks always apply outdated trends.

To catch up with the reality, development of trends reversal indicators and detectors has to become the top most priority of TRIZ research. Those who propose the first reliable trend reversal indicator, or trend reversal detection technique/algorithm, will be awarded the Altshuller prize.